US CPI Report, 14 October 2026: September Inflation 3.7%, Core 2.6%

US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September 2026 and 3.7% over the 12 months to September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported at 13:30 UK time on Wednesday 14 October 2026. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year, and at 07:31 UK time on 16 October 2026 the versus prediction on whether any 2026 report shows annual inflation above 4.5% showed 16.5p for Yes.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain, so times are UK times: 13:30 was 8:30am in New York. versus had three predictions on the CPI report and one on the BLS producer price report of 15 October, and all four now show as settled. Facts were checked at official sources on 16 October 2026; this is not advice.

One report, four numbers

BLS describes the CPI as a measure of the average change over time in the prices urban consumers pay for a market basket of goods and services (CPI home page). Each monthly report leads with two versions of the index: all items, the headline, and all items less food and energy, often called core. BLS's summary gives each as a one-month change that is seasonally adjusted, which strips out swings that repeat every year such as weather and holidays, and a 12-month change that is not.

The report of 14 October, Consumer Price Index, September 2026, gave:

• Headline, one month: up 0.6% in September, after 0.4% in August.
• Headline, 12 months: up 3.7%, after 3.4% for the 12 months to August.
• Core, one month: up 0.3%, the same as in August.
• Core, 12 months: up 2.6%, after 2.4% for the 12 months to August.

BLS said its gasoline (petrol) index rose 9.1% in September and accounted for over half of the monthly all items increase. Its energy index was 20.4% higher than a year earlier.

The settled predictions against the BLS figures

Each prediction read one figure that BLS prints to one decimal place. Below, each figure as printed sits next to the answer label carrying the same number.

• What will US monthly inflation come in at? read the seasonally adjusted one-month change in all items. BLS printed 0.6%, the figure on the 0.6% label among nine answers from 0.0% or less to 0.8% or more.
• Where will annual US core CPI land? read the unadjusted core 12-month change. BLS printed 2.6%, the 2.6% label among ten answers from 2.0% or less to 2.9% or more.
• Where will monthly US core CPI land? read the seasonally adjusted one-month change in core. BLS printed 0.3%, the 0.3% label among seven answers. Before adjustment, Table 1 of the report shows core up 0.4%, a figure this prediction does not use.
• What will US producer price inflation be? read the unadjusted 12-month change in the producer price index (PPI) for final demand, which tracks what domestic producers receive for their output (PPI home page). The PPI release of 15 October 2026 printed 6.3%, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022, BLS said. That figure sits in the top band of answers, 5.9% or more.

That PPI release also revised May to August for late reports and corrections: August now reads 5.6%, against 5.4% in the release of 10 September.

Checking a percentage change yourself

BLS's factsheet on calculating percent changes gives the method: subtract the earlier index value from the later one, divide by the earlier value and multiply by 100. Table 1 of the September report puts the unadjusted all items index at 324.800 in September 2025 and 336.940 in September 2026. 336.940 minus 324.800 is 12.140. Divided by 324.800 that is about 0.0374, and multiplied by 100 it is 3.74, which BLS prints as 3.7%. A 12-month change is not the sum of the monthly changes in between, the factsheet adds.

What comes next, in UK time

UK clocks go back on Sunday 25 October (GOV.UK) and US clocks on Sunday 1 November (NIST). In the week between, an 8:30am New York release lands at 12:30 UK time instead of 13:30.

• Wednesday 21 October, 7:00am (BST): UK CPI for September from the Office for National Statistics (ONS release page). It settles none of the predictions here; see our guide to UK CPI inflation.
• Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October: the Federal Reserve meets. Its October calendar lists the decision for 2:00pm on 28 October, 18:00 UK time (GMT); see our guide to the Fed decision on 28 October.
• Thursday 29 October, 12:30 (GMT): the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes personal income and outlays for September, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (BEA schedule). Seven versus predictions settle on its core figure.
• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30 (GMT): CPI for October on the BLS schedule, then November on Thursday 10 December and December on Wednesday 13 January 2027, also 13:30 UK time. Each counts for the above 4.5% prediction.
• Friday 13 November, 13:30 (GMT): PPI for October (PPI schedule). BLS can revise any PPI for four months after it first appears, so this release may restate September's 6.3%.

US inflation predictions still open on versus

Will US inflation climb above 4.5%? is Yes if any BLS monthly CPI report for 2026 prints a 12-month rise above 4.5%, so 4.6% or more at one decimal place; September's was 3.7%. It cannot settle No before the December report, and if that is still missing at 11:59pm New York time on 31 January 2027 (04:59 UK time on 1 February), the figures already published decide. The page lists its close as 04:59 UK time on 1 January 2027. At 07:31 UK time on 16 October 2026 it showed 16.5p for Yes, the market's estimate of a 16.5% chance, and 83.5p for No.

Core PCE inflation has seven Yes or No predictions, one for each value from 2.7% or less to 3.3% or more. Each reads BEA's September figure for the 12-month rise in its PCE price index excluding food and energy, as printed to one decimal place on 29 October; headline PCE does not count. If BEA is late, each prediction waits for the next scheduled personal income and outlays release, and if September is still missing then, the latest earlier month with a published figure decides. The pages list their close as 12:29 UK time on 29 October, and BEA's release of 30 September 2026 put August at 3.0%. At 07:31 UK time on 16 October 2026 the pages showed:

• 2.7% or less: 4.4p for Yes
• 2.8%: 3p for Yes
• 2.9%: 14.5p for Yes
• 3.0%: 29.5p for Yes
• 3.1%: 45p for Yes
• 3.2%: 10.1p for Yes
• 3.3% or more: 2.7p for Yes

Prices of separate predictions do not have to add up to 100p; see how to read market probabilities.

Before you trade

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Frequently asked questions

What did the US CPI report on 14 October 2026 show?

BLS said consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year.

When is the next US CPI report, and what time is that in the UK?

Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 8:30am New York time, when BLS publishes the October figures. That is 13:30 UK time (GMT).

What is core CPI?

It is the CPI for all items less food and energy. BLS says on its questions and answers page that some users follow it because food and energy prices are relatively volatile and they want the underlying rate.

Can the September CPI figures be revised?

BLS says the CPI for urban consumers (CPI-U) is final when released. Only its seasonally adjusted figures change, for up to five years, as new seasonal factors arrive each February.

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