Fed Interest Rate Decision 28 October 2026: Held at 3.75% to 4.00%

The US Federal Reserve held the target range for its main interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in a 10 to 2 vote announced at 18:00 UK time (GMT), with Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed president Beth M. Hammack dissenting, both preferring a quarter-point rise. At 06:57 UK time on 29 October 2026 the versus prediction on a rise in the top of that range by the end of the December meeting showed 79.2p for Yes, the market's estimate of a 79.2% chance.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain, with facts checked at the official sources on 29 October 2026. It is not a forecast or advice.

What the Fed decided on 28 October

The FOMC statement, timed 2:00 p.m. EDT, says economic activity is expanding at a strong pace and job gains have kept pace with the workforce. On prices it is short: "Inflation remains elevated." More information, it says, will help the Committee find the policy that brings inflation back to its 2% goal in good time; it does not say when or whether the range will move again.

At the press conference at 18:30 UK time (GMT), Chairman Kevin Warsh said "inflation is too high" and pointed to energy and related prices rising again in recent weeks (preliminary transcript of his opening statement).

Where the rate stands

The federal funds rate, what banks charge each other for overnight loans, has had a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% since 17 September, the day after the FOMC raised it by a quarter of a percentage point; the Fed's policy rate table lists that rise as the only change in 2026. The September minutes, published on 7 October, say most participants thought another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, while stressing that each decision depends on incoming information.

Who votes, and what a dissent is

The FOMC has twelve voters: the seven Board governors, the president of the New York Fed and four other Reserve Bank presidents who rotate yearly (the Fed's committee page). A dissent is a vote against the decision, and the statement names each dissenter and what they preferred. This year's seven statements show these counts, a record, not a forecast:

• 28 January: held, 10 to 2, both dissenters for a quarter-point cut.
• 18 March: held, 11 to 1, the dissenter for a cut.
• 29 April: held, 8 to 4: one for a cut, three for the hold but against wording that leaned towards easing.
• 17 June: held, 12 to 0.
• 29 July: held, 9 to 3: the Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas presidents, the same three as in April, wanted a quarter-point rise.
• 16 September: raised to 3.75% to 4.00%, 12 to 0.
• 28 October: held, 10 to 2: Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter-point rise.

What the versus predictions show

The October prediction, How many Fed policymakers will dissent on 28 Oct?, counted votes against the rate decision recorded in the statement. It closed at 17:59 UK time (GMT) on 28 October and its page now shows it as settled; the statement records two votes against, both for a higher rate (what market resolution means).

Four predictions run on to December (readings at 06:57 UK time on 29 October 2026, closes in UK time, GMT):

• Will the Fed lift the top of its rate range by 9 Dec? counts any rise in the top of the range from 17 September to the end of the December meeting, emergency moves included but not September's own rise, with the Fed's record of rate changes as the main source. October brought no rise, so Yes now needs a rise at the December meeting or an emergency rise before it. It closes at 00:00 UK time on 9 December, 19 hours before the statement, and showed 79.2p for Yes and 24.3p for No.
• How high will the Fed's top rate be on 9 Dec? settles on the top of the range after the December meeting, rounded to the nearest quarter point (4.00% now), on official Fed announcements; if no December decision is out by 11:59pm New York time on 31 December (04:59 UK time on 1 January 2027), the top of the range then in force counts. It closes at 18:59 on 9 December and showed 17.3p for 4.0%, 81p for 4.25% and 5.4p for 4.5% or higher.
• What path will the Fed take on rates by 9 Dec? labels the September, October and December meetings each a hike, a pause or a cut in the top of the range, judged on FOMC statements and the Fed's rate page and ignoring unscheduled emergency moves. After a September hike and an October pause, two named paths still fit, one ending in a December hike and one in a December pause; a December cut falls under Other. It closes at 18:59 on 9 December.
• How many Fed officials will dissent on rates on 9 Dec? counts December votes against the rate decision, using the statement. Its rules do not say how a vote like April's, for the rate but against the wording, would be treated, so read them before you trade. It closes at 18:59 on 9 December and showed 65p for none, 19.7p for one and 13.6p for two.

The calendar from here to 9 December

Times below are UK time (GMT). US clocks go back on 1 November (NIST), so New York is then five hours behind, not four.

• Thursday 29 October, 12:30: third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays, with PCE inflation, the measure behind the Fed's 2% goal (BEA schedule; our GDP and PCE guide).
• Friday 6 November, 13:30: the October jobs report (BLS schedule; our jobs report guide).
• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30: October consumer prices (BLS schedule; our CPI guide).
• Wednesday 18 November, 19:00: the October minutes, with the fuller discussion behind the 10 to 2 vote (Fed calendar).
• Wednesday 25 November, 13:30: October PCE inflation and a second estimate of third-quarter GDP (BEA schedule).
• Friday 4 December, 13:30: the November jobs report (BLS schedule). November consumer prices follow on 10 December, the day after the decision.
• Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December: the last meeting of 2026, with a Summary of Economic Projections, the participants' own forecasts including for the rate. Statement at 19:00, press conference at 19:30 (December calendar page); it decides all four December predictions, the lift one unless an emergency rise comes first.

Neither the data nor the minutes settles a versus prediction. The data are the kind of information the statement says will help the Committee decide: inflation figures show the distance from the 2% goal, jobs figures whether hiring keeps pace with the workforce.

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Frequently asked questions

What did the Fed decide on 28 October 2026?

It held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% by 10 votes to 2, announced at 18:00 UK time (GMT). Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against, preferring a quarter-point rise.

What is the Fed interest rate now?

3.75% to 4.00%, in effect since 17 September 2026 and unchanged on 28 October (the Fed's policy rate table).

Will the Fed raise interest rates in December 2026?

Only the Committee knows until its December statement. At 06:57 UK time on 29 October 2026 the versus prediction on a rise by the end of the December meeting showed 79.2p for Yes.

When is the next Fed meeting after October?

On 8 and 9 December 2026, with the decision at 19:00 UK time (GMT) on 9 December, an hour later than in October because US clocks go back on 1 November.

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