US CPI Report for October 2026: 10 November UK Time and Predictions

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the US consumer price index (CPI) for October 2026 at 8:30am New York time on Tuesday 10 November, which is 13:30 UK time (GMT). At 07:07 UK time on 29 October 2026, the versus page on a one-month rise of exactly 0.3% in all items CPI showed 47.7p for Yes, the market's estimate of a 47.7% chance.

BLS gathered no survey prices for October 2025, during that year's federal shutdown, and says it will not publish October 2026 12-month changes where the October 2025 index is missing, as it is for all items and core. This guide is for readers in Great Britain and is not advice or a forecast; September's report has its own guide.

Where September left US prices

BLS's September 2026 CPI release, out on Wednesday 14 October 2026, gave these figures for all urban consumers (CPI-U):

• All items, one month: up 0.6% seasonally adjusted, after 0.4% in August.
• All items, 12 months: up 3.7% before seasonal adjustment, after 3.4% to August.
• Core (all items less food and energy), one month: up 0.3%, as in August.
• Core, 12 months: up 2.6%, after 2.4%.

BLS said gasoline (petrol) rose 9.1% and made up more than half of the monthly increase.

The hole the 2025 shutdown left

A 12-month rate compares this October's index with last October's. BLS's questions and answers on the 2025 shutdown, last updated on 16 September 2026, say data collection stopped from 1 October to 12 November 2025 and October 2025 indexes could not be published for most series, so BLS "will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026" for them. Table 1 of the November 2025 release shows a dash for October 2025 against both all items and core.

The one-month change, October against September 2026, is not covered by that note. A BLS notice updated on 22 October 2026 adds that collection, cut back in summer 2025, is being rebuilt.

Four sets, 37 predictions

versus lists 37 Yes or No predictions on this report, each tied to one value as BLS prints it, to one decimal place, apart from the two answers at the ends of each set, which cover every figure beyond a threshold. The four sets, with prices for Yes at 07:07 UK time on 29 October 2026:

• All items, one month: nine answers from 0.1% or lower to 0.9% or higher; 0.2% at 31.4p, exactly 0.3% at 47.7p, 0.4% at 13.5p.
• Core, one month: seven answers from 0.0% or lower to 0.6% or higher; 0.2% at 36.9p, exactly 0.3% at 34.6p, 0.4% at 13.7p.
• All items, 12 months: twelve answers from 3.2% or lower to 4.3% or higher; exactly 3.7%, September's rate, at 92.1p and exactly 3.8% at 7.6p.
• Core, 12 months: nine answers from 2.2% or lower to 3.1% or higher; exactly 2.6%, September's rate, at 73p. None covers 2.9%, so a 2.9% figure would make all nine No.

Prices within a set need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities).

The one-month sets compare October with September after seasonal adjustment; the 12-month sets use unadjusted figures. Headline and core sets ignore each other, and BLS's first print decides; revisions after it do not count. All 37 pages list their close as 13:29 UK time on 10 November, a minute before the release.

If a figure is missing on 10 November, the rules wait for BLS's next scheduled CPI release, at 13:30 UK time on 10 December, and if October is still absent then, they test the most recent earlier month BLS has published. The rules name no month. If BLS does as its note says, the latest earlier month with a published 12-month rate would be September (3.7% all items, 2.6% core), and the 12-month sets would not settle before 10 December.

Release day and after, in UK time (GMT)

• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30: October CPI (BLS schedule).
• Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December: the Fed's next meeting, with economic projections (FOMC calendar). November's CPI comes a day later, so October's is the last CPI report before it. On 28 October the Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% by 10 votes to 2 (our Fed guide).
• Thursday 10 December, 13:30: November CPI, when the annual sets fall back to an earlier month if October's 12-month rates are still missing.
• Wednesday 13 January 2027, 13:30: December CPI.

Reading a higher or lower monthly figure

Table A of the September release gives one-month all items changes of 0.9%, 0.6%, 0.5%, minus 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.6% from March to September 2026. Read against it, not as a forecast: an October 0.3% would be about half September's pace; 0.1% or lower would match July or undercut it, falls like June's included; 0.9% or higher would at least equal March, the largest in the table.

Core ran 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.0%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.3%: a core 0.2% would be a step down, 0.4% would match April's high, 0.5% or more would top every month listed and 0.0% or lower would equal June or go below it.

Before you trade

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Frequently asked questions

What time is the US CPI report in UK time?

13:30 UK time (GMT) on Tuesday 10 November 2026, which is 8:30am in New York. US clocks go back on 1 November (NIST), so the gap that day is five hours.

What was US inflation in September 2026?

BLS said on 14 October 2026 that consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September and 0.6% in September alone. Core prices, without food and energy, rose 2.6% and 0.3%.

Will the October CPI report show an annual inflation rate?

BLS says it will not publish October 2026 12-month changes where the October 2025 index is missing, as it is for all items and core after the 2025 shutdown. The note does not cover one-month changes.

Which figure settles the versus CPI predictions?

BLS's first print, to one decimal place: the seasonally adjusted one-month change or the unadjusted 12-month change. If October's figure is missing, the rules wait until 10 December, then use the most recent earlier month.

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