Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 11:22 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 4.25% at a 72% chance, ahead of 4.0% at 25% and 4.5% or higher at 5%.
Exactly one answer receives YES: the one that matches the upper bound (top end) of the Fed's target range for the federal funds rate once the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided at its December 2026 meeting, planned for 8–9 December 2026. All other answers are NO. The result can be settled as soon as the statement for that meeting is out. If no decision on the target range from that meeting has been issued by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the upper bound in force at that time decides. The upper bound is rounded to the closest multiple of 0.25 percentage points; a value exactly halfway between two listed levels is rounded away from zero, so 2.875% counts as 3.0%. An upper bound of 1.0% or less counts as 1.0% or lower, and one of 4.5% or more counts as 4.5% or higher, so the answers cover every possible value. Official Federal Reserve announcements decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
