Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 30 October 2026, 11:13 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 75% chance and No at 25%.
Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve lifts the upper bound of its federal funds target range at any point from 17 September 2026 through the end of its December 2026 policy meeting, currently set for 8 and 9 December 2026, including any increase announced as the result of that December meeting. Otherwise NO. Any move to the federal funds target range announced when the 15 and 16 September 2026 policy meeting ended does not count here, up or down and whatever its size. Emergency rate increases announced on or after 17 September 2026 do count. A NO outcome cannot be settled before the Federal Reserve has published its rate decision from the December meeting. Official information published by the Federal Reserve on its own website, in particular its record of policy rate changes, is the main basis for deciding the outcome. Agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
