US Midterms 2026: What the House and Senate Predictions Say

Which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate after the US midterms will be decided by the elections of Tuesday 3 November 2026, and Republicans go in holding both chambers. At 06:18 UK time on 27 October 2026, versus showed the Democratic Party at 91.5p to win control of the House and at 66.5p to win control of the Senate, the market's estimates of a 91.5% and a 66.5% chance.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain and is not advice. The answer that comes true settles at 100p and the others at 0p, and versus does not say who will win. State ballot measures on the same day have their own guide.

Nine predictions, one reading

All prices were read at 06:18 UK time on 27 October 2026; separate answers need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities).

• House: Who takes the US House at the midterms? showed 8.5p for the Republican Party, and Will the GOP keep its House majority? showed 8.5p for Yes.
• Senate: the Senate control prediction showed 33.5p for the Republican Party.
• Both chambers: Which party runs Washington after the midterms? showed Democrats Sweep at 65.5p, a Republican Senate with a Democratic House at 26.5p, Republicans Sweep at 7.5p, a Democratic Senate with a Republican House at 0.9p and Other at 0.2p. Will Democrats flip both chambers of Congress? showed 65.5p for Yes, and Will the GOP hold both chambers of Congress? showed 7.5p for Yes.
• House seats: How many US House seats will the GOP hold? showed 35p for below 190 and 5.4p for 215 to 219, the band containing the 218 needed for a majority.
• Senate seats: What will the GOP's Senate seat count be? showed 10.5p for exactly 50, a tie the Vice President would break, and 5.9p for 53, the number Republicans hold today.
• National vote: How wide will the national House vote margin be? measures the gap between the parties' shares of the House vote; it showed 25.5p for a Democratic lead of 8 to 10 points and 2.2p for a Republican lead below 2 points.

What is on the ballot

• The date. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) names Tuesday 3 November 2026 as the next regular federal general election date.
• The House. All 435 voting seats, as members serve two-year terms (house.gov). On 27 October 2026 the Clerk of the House listed 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 independent and 2 vacancies; a majority is 218.
• The Senate. 35 of the 100 seats. The Clerk's list of nominees (published 8 October 2026) shows 33 contests for full six-year terms and two, in Florida and Ohio, for the remainder of terms ending on 3 January 2029. On 27 October, member data on congress.gov, the Library of Congress site, showed 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 independents. A majority is 51; at 50 to 50 the Vice President, JD Vance, elected on the Republican ticket, casts the deciding vote (Constitution, Article I).

How each prediction settles

In our own words; every prediction page names its settling source before you trade (what market resolution means).

• House control. The party with a majority of the voting seats, as credible reports agree, with official certifications as the fallback; if neither party has a clear majority, it follows the party of the Speaker the new House elects. The yes or no GOP prediction is Yes if Republicans keep a majority, judged by credible reporting once control is called.
• Senate control. A majority of the 100 seats, or at 50 to 50 the party with 50 seats and the Vice Presidency. Regular and special contests set by 31 October count, as do their later runoffs. An independent counts with the party they formally sit with or announce they will join; if that is unclear, the prediction can wait until 11:59pm Eastern on 4 January 2027 (04:59 GMT on 5 January). State election offices and Congress decide, with reliable news coverage as support.
• Both chambers. The matching combination, settled once AP, NBC and Fox News have each called who controls both chambers, or by official certifications if they disagree. The two yes or no versions need that party to hold majorities in both chambers, judged by credible reporting.
• Seat counts. Republican seats from every House or Senate election set for November as of 31 October, specials included, using the party shown on the ballot. Each waits for any runoff that could change the band and settles once AP, NBC and Fox News have called every race, with certification if they differ.
• Vote margin. The gap in points between the two parties' shares of valid House votes in the 50 states, using the totals the Clerk of the House publishes, recounts included; a margin exactly on a band's edge goes to the higher band. The Clerk's 2024 statistics came out on 10 March 2025; if nothing is published by 04:59 BST on 1 July 2027, another credible source may be used.

From polling night to the new Congress, in UK time

UK clocks went back on 25 October (gov.uk) and US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November (NIST): New York is four hours behind the UK until then and five from 1 November. All UK times below are GMT.

• Early and postal voting: each state sets its own dates, and most offer an early in-person voting period, USAGov says (updated 20 October 2026). In Virginia, a postal ballot postmarked by polling day counts if it arrives by noon on Friday 6 November, 17:00 (Department of Elections).
• Tuesday 3 November, trading ends: 00:00 (7pm on Monday in New York) for House control, both chambers, House seats and vote margin; 17:00 (noon) for Senate seats; 23:59 (6:59pm) for the three yes or no predictions; 04:59 on 4 November (11:59pm on 3 November) for Senate control. A close stops trading, not the question (when markets close).
• Night of 3 to 4 November: polls close state by state, for example at 7pm Eastern in Virginia, 00:00 (Department of Elections), 7:30pm in North Carolina, 00:30 (State Board of Elections), and 7pm local time at Hawaii's voter service centres, 05:00 (Office of Elections).
• Results: unofficial counts appear once polls close and keep coming until every ballot is counted; a media call is a projection, only election officials publish official results, and state and local officials set certification dates, the US Election Assistance Commission (EAC) says.
• Runoffs: the FEC lists Tuesday 1 December for a general election runoff in Georgia, where a Senate seat is on the ballot, and Saturday 12 December for Louisiana House races in which no candidate passed 50% on 3 November.
• Sunday 3 January 2027: new terms begin at noon in Washington, 17:00, and Congress meets that day unless a law sets another (20th Amendment, National Archives). If House control is unclear, the House prediction waits for the new House's Speaker.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: an answer that does not come true settles at 0p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm, you can sell at the current price while a prediction is open, and your loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (account 101143, see its public register). Safer Play has deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP.

Frequently asked questions

When are the 2026 US midterm elections?

On Tuesday 3 November 2026, according to the FEC. Polls close state by state that evening; Virginia's close at 7pm Eastern, 00:00 GMT on Wednesday 4 November.

How many seats does a party need to control Congress?

218 of 435 in the House and 51 of 100 in the Senate. At 50 to 50, the Vice President, JD Vance, a Republican, breaks the tie.

Will the result be known on 4 November?

Not always. Election night results are unofficial, the EAC says, and runoffs in Georgia on 1 December and in Louisiana on 12 December could leave a chamber undecided until then.

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