Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:12 UTC, versus prices Democratic Party at a 70% chance and Republican Party at 34%.
This prediction is about which party controls the US Senate as a result of the 2026 US midterm elections (general election day 3 November 2026). A party has control if it wins a majority of the Senate's voting seats. If no party has a majority, control goes to the party that holds half of the voting seats and also holds the Vice Presidency. If it is still unclear after that, control goes to the party of the first President Pro Tempore chosen by the Congress that meets after this election. Seat counting: every regular and special Senate election for the 120th Congress that, as of 31 October 2026, is scheduled for November 2026 is included, and runoffs for those races decide their seats even if held after November. A vacant seat with no election or special election scheduled for November 2026 as of 31 October 2026 counts for the party of its most recent holder. A seat contested in this election counts for the party under which the winner was elected, even if the member-elect switches party or leaves the seat before Congress formally organizes. A seat not contested in this election counts for the party holding it on election day, even if its senator switches party or leaves after election day. Senators elected as independents count for a party if they formally caucus with it or, if newly elected, announce that they will caucus with it. If an independent's caucus choice cannot be determined on election day, the prediction stays open until that senator announces a choice or until 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first; a senator with no announcement by then counts for no party. At most one listed party is YES; if control goes to any other party under these rules, both answers are NO. Official information from state election authorities and the US Congress decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
