US Ballot Measures 2026: Props 317 and 319, Billionaire Tax, Voter ID

On Tuesday 3 November 2026, alongside the US midterm elections, voters in Arizona, California and Michigan decide statewide ballot measures, from a one-time tax on California's billionaires to a convention to rewrite Michigan's constitution. At 07:18 UK time on 26 October 2026 the versus page for the billionaire tax, California's Prop 40, showed 24.5p for Yes, the market's estimate of a 24.5% chance that voters approve it.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain, and all readings were taken at 07:18 UK time on 26 October 2026. A price from 0p to 100p is the market's estimate of a chance: the answer that comes true settles at 100p, the other at 0p, and versus does not say how any vote will go (reading market prices). Control of Congress has its own midterms guide.

Arizona: Props 317 and 319

The Legislature referred both measures to voters, and its Legislative Council adopted an analysis of each on 8 July 2026. Polls are open from 6:00 am to 7:00 pm under section 16-565 of state law. On 3 November Arizona is on Mountain Standard Time, so that is 13:00 GMT on 3 November to 02:00 GMT on 4 November.

Prop 317, drug cartels. HCR 2055, passed in 2025, would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organisations under Arizona law and require the state's Department of Homeland Security to use all lawful means within its powers against the threats they pose, the Legislative Council says. The Prop 317 prediction showed 73p for Yes.

Prop 319, traffic cameras. SCR 1004, passed in 2026, would bar local authorities and state agencies from camera enforcement of speed limits, traffic signals and signs without a contract signed by the end of 2026. Existing local systems would need their own voters' approval at the next general election and every 10 years, and must stop within 90 days of a No. The Prop 319 prediction showed 85.5p for Yes.

California: two taxes, voter ID and a housing bond

California has 14 statewide propositions on its qualified list; the summaries below are from the Official Voter Information Guide. Polls are open from 7:00 am to 8:00 pm, the Secretary of State says; after US clocks go back on 1 November (NIST), that is 15:00 GMT on 3 November to 04:00 GMT on 4 November.

Prop 40, the billionaire tax. Put on the ballot by petition, it would charge billionaires who lived in California on 1 January 2026 a one-time tax of 5% of their net worth, due in 2027 or payable over five years at extra cost, mainly to fund health care. The Legislative Analyst says real estate, pensions and retirement accounts would generally be excluded. The billionaire tax prediction also showed 75.5p for No.

Prop 3, the top earner tax. Also a petition measure, it would make permanent the higher income tax rates on top earners in place since 2012, which otherwise expire in 2031; its official title calls it permanent funding for schools and health care. The top earner tax prediction showed 93.5p for Yes.

Prop 39, voter ID. This petition measure would write into California's constitution that in-person voters must show government-issued identification, and mail ballots would be invalid without the last four digits of a listed ID number on the envelope. Today a voter's signature establishes their identity, the guide notes. The voter ID prediction showed 16.5p for Yes.

Prop 1, the housing bond. Put on the ballot by the Legislature, it would let the state borrow through general obligation bonds for rental housing, home loans for veterans, supportive housing, preserving affordable homes and help with deposits. The housing bond prediction showed 54.5p for Yes.

Michigan: a convention to rewrite the constitution

Proposal 2026-1, as published by Michigan's Bureau of Elections on 24 July 2026, asks whether elected delegates should meet in 2027 to draft a general revision of the state constitution for voters to accept or reject. Article XII, Section 3 of the constitution sends this question to voters every 16 years, and voters turned it down in 1978, 1994 and 2010, according to the state Senate Fiscal Agency's overview of the proposal. Polls are open from 7:00 am to 8:00 pm local time, the Michigan Department of State says, which on Eastern time is 12:00 GMT on 3 November to 01:00 GMT on 4 November. The Michigan prediction showed 10.1p for Yes.

Other measures with a versus prediction

California: Prop 2 (rainy day fund), Prop 5 (recall elections), Prop 37 (home buyer loans), Prop 38 (immunology research bond), Prop 41 (state taxes and audits), Prop 43 (local tax votes), Prop 44 (clinic spending) and Prop 45 (environmental review). Arizona: Prop 144 (citizenship, voter identification and early voting). Measures elsewhere: Alaska, Florida, South Dakota and West Virginia.

How the predictions settle

Each prediction names its settling source before you trade (resolution explained). The Arizona and Michigan predictions and the California ones on Props 1 and 3 go first by what dependable news outlets agree on, with the state's official results deciding any doubt. The voter ID prediction uses the results California's Secretary of State certifies, and the billionaire tax one those certified results plus consistent credible reporting, so both may wait for certification.

The Arizona predictions and the California ones on Props 1 and 3 settle No if the vote never happens or no definite result exists on 31 March 2027 (04:59 BST on 1 April for Props 317 and 319), and the voter ID test would follow any officially rescheduled vote. Michigan's settles No at once if the question leaves the ballot, or if no result is known by 04:59 GMT on 1 January 2028. Lawsuits after the vote do not change the Arizona or voter ID outcomes.

Trading is listed to end at 00:00 GMT on 3 November, before polls open, for the voter ID and Michigan predictions, at 23:59 GMT on 3 November for the California tax and housing ones, and at 04:59 GMT on 4 November for the Prop 317 and 319 ones. A close stops trading, not the question (when markets close).

From polling day to certification, in UK time

• Tuesday 3 November, 12:00 to 15:00 GMT: polls open in Michigan, Arizona and California, in that order.
• Wednesday 4 November, 01:00 to 04:00 GMT: polls close in the same order. Arizona keeps early ballot tallies back until all precincts report or an hour after closing, whichever comes first (section 16-551); California counties report to the Secretary of State at least every two hours. Election night totals are not final.
• Tuesday 10 November: the last day for California mail ballots postmarked by 3 November to arrive, so close results can still change.
• Thursday 19 and Monday 23 November: deadlines for Arizona's county and state canvasses (section 16-642), the official count the Arizona predictions fall back on; the Governor then proclaims the measures that won a majority (section 16-651).
• Thursday 3 and Friday 11 December: deadlines for California's counties to finish the official canvass and for the Secretary of State to certify the statement of vote (election calendar), the result the voter ID and billionaire tax predictions use.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: an answer that does not come true settles at 0p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm, you can sell at the current price while a prediction is open, and your loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143 (public register), and Safer Play has deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP.

Frequently asked questions

What are Prop 317 and Prop 319 in Arizona?

Two measures the Arizona Legislature referred to voters: Prop 317 would declare drug cartels terrorist organisations under state law, and Prop 319 would bar new traffic camera systems and put existing ones to local voters.

When do polls close in California on 3 November?

At 8:00 pm Pacific Standard Time, which is 04:00 GMT on Wednesday 4 November.

Why is Michigan voting on a constitutional convention?

Its constitution puts the question to voters every 16 years, the Senate Fiscal Agency explains. A Yes would bring elected delegates together in 2027 to draft a revision for voters to accept or reject.

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