ECB Interest Rate Decision 29 October 2026: Held at 2.50%, What Next

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its three key interest rates unchanged on Thursday 29 October 2026, leaving the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, in a decision published at 14:15 CET, which was 13:15 UK time (GMT). On versus, the prediction on that decision has shown as settled since 13:43 UK time the same day, and at 06:12 UK time on 30 October 2026 the live prediction Where will eurozone inflation end up? showed 90.4p for a December 2026 inflation rate of 3.1% or more, meaning the market put the chance at 90.4%.

The main refinancing rate stays at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%; the next decision is due on Thursday 17 December. This guide is for readers in Great Britain, with facts checked at the ECB and Eurostat on 30 October 2026, and is not advice. UK clocks went back to GMT on 25 October (GOV.UK), and Central European Time (CET) is one hour ahead.

Why the Governing Council held

The ECB's press release of 29 October sets out forces pulling both ways. Energy prices have kept rising, an upside risk for inflation and a downside risk for growth. Yet underlying inflation has stayed broadly stable, wages show no material response so far, and financing conditions have tightened since the last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth.

At the press conference, which started at 14:45 CET (13:45 UK time), President Christine Lagarde said the Governing Council "debated whether a hike was appropriate" before deciding unanimously to hold and wait for more information. She named two changes since September: dearer energy, and costlier long-term borrowing, with average 10-year government bond yields up by around 35 basis points since the cut-off for the September projections (ECB transcript). A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

The rates have stood there since 16 September, after a rise of 25 basis points on 10 September, as the ECB's key interest rates page shows. The deposit facility rate, the interest banks receive for money left with the central bank overnight, is the one through which the Council steers its policy (ECB explainer).

Inflation and growth in the ECB's words

The monetary policy statement puts euro area inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August, with energy inflation at 18.9%, the same figures as Eurostat's release of 16 October 2026, which also shows 2.5% for inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. The ECB aims for 2% over the medium term, measured by the HICP, short for Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Energy prices, the statement says, have risen beyond the path in the September staff projections, which is likely to push inflation higher in the near term and keep it well above target over the coming quarters.

On growth, the statement says the incoming data suggest the economy kept expanding in the third quarter, and unemployment held at 6.4% in August; but dearer energy has hit consumer confidence, and higher financing costs are likely to weigh on activity.

What Lagarde said about December

The ECB's meeting calendar puts the next monetary policy meeting on Wednesday 16 and Thursday 17 December 2026, with a press conference on the second day. December brings new staff projections, and Lagarde called the weeks before it "information-rich": two inflation readings, third-quarter GDP, wage data and two unemployment figures among them, with underlying inflation likely to carry particular weight.

The statement repeats that the Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path. Asked about another rise in December, Lagarde said that unless there was a major development, "the direction of travel is quite clear"; later she said October's hold "does not indicate that we will not be hiking".

Dates before 17 December

The steps to the decision, with dates from Eurostat's release calendar:

• Wednesday 4 November: the flash estimate of October inflation. A reading above September's 3.8% would fit the ECB's warning of higher inflation in the near term, and the measures that leave out energy and food show the underlying trend Lagarde stressed.
• Friday 13 November: GDP and employment for July to September, after a first growth estimate on 30 October. Together they test the ECB's view that the economy kept expanding.
• Wednesday 18 November: the full October inflation figures.
• Tuesday 1 December: the flash estimate of November inflation, the last before the meeting.
• Thursday 17 December: the decision. A hold would keep the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, and a rise of a quarter of a percentage point would take it to 2.75%. In the ECB's statement, higher interest rates help bring inflation back to target, while higher financing costs weigh on growth.

What the versus pages show

What will the ECB do with rates on 29 Oct? asked how far the October meeting would move the deposit facility rate, in basis points, going by official ECB information, with five answers from a cut of 50 or more to a rise of 50 or more. Its end date was 11:59 UK time (GMT) on 29 October, and it has shown as settled since 13:43 UK time that day. The ECB's release records the rate unchanged at 2.50%: compare that with the answers (what market resolution means).

Where will eurozone inflation end up? is still open. It settles on the euro area's annual HICP rate for December 2026, to one decimal place, in Eurostat's full monthly release, which Eurostat's calendar puts on Tuesday 19 January 2027 (a flash estimate comes first, on 6 January). Its nine answers run from below 1.0%, through seven bands three tenths of a point wide, to 3.1% or more. If December's figure is not out by the date set for January's, the latest month published counts. The page lists its close as 00:00 UK time (GMT) on 19 January 2027. At 06:12 UK time on 30 October 2026 it showed 90.4p for 3.1% or more and 7.2p for 2.8% to 3.0%; prices of separate answers need not add up to exactly 100p (how to read market probabilities).

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: an answer that turns out wrong settles at 0p, and one that turns out right at 100p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of your stake and shown before you confirm. While a prediction is open you can sell at the current price, and you can never lose more than you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143 (public register), and Safer Play has deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time outs and self exclusion.

Frequently asked questions

Did the ECB change interest rates on 29 October 2026?

No. It kept the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%, in a decision published at 13:15 UK time (GMT).

When is the next ECB interest rate decision?

Thursday 17 December 2026, at the end of a two-day meeting that brings new staff projections. The ECB gives the times in its weekly schedule; in October the decision came at 14:15 CET, 13:15 UK time.

Will the ECB raise interest rates in December 2026?

The Council says it is not pre-committing to a rate path. Christine Lagarde said October's hold did not mean the Council would not raise rates, and that unless there was a major development "the direction of travel is quite clear".

Does the ECB decision change UK interest rates?

Not directly. The ECB sets the key rates for the euro area, while the Bank of England sets UK Bank Rate, with its next decision due on 5 November 2026; our guide to that decision covers it.

18+ only. Trade responsibly. BeGambleAware.org and GAMSTOP.