Bank of England Rate Decision 5 November 2026: Will Rates Rise?

The Bank of England announces its next Bank Rate decision at 12 noon UK time (GMT) on Thursday 5 November 2026; Bank Rate is 3.75% on 26 October, and nobody outside its Monetary Policy Committee can say yet what the decision will be. On versus at 07:12 UK time on 26 October 2026, a 25 bps increase to 4% showed 96.8p, the market's estimate of a 96.8% chance, while no change showed 2.8p.

At its last decision, on 17 September, the committee voted 6 to 3 to hold, with three members for a rise to 4%; since then official figures have shown inflation climbing to 3.5% in September. Facts below were checked on the pages of the Bank and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 26 October 2026; this is not a forecast or advice.

Inflation rose to 3.5% in September

The ONS bulletin Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026, published on 21 October, put CPI at 3.5% for the 12 months to September, up from 3.1% in August, the highest rate since October 2025 and above the Bank's 2% target. Transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the rise from 3.1% to 3.5%; core CPI, which leaves out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.8%, and services inflation to 3.7%.

The Bank had expected a further rise: its September minutes, based on energy prices as at 14 September, put CPI at around 3¾% in the last three months of 2026 and slightly above 4% in the first three months of 2027. A separate versus prediction on the September figure, What will the UK's annual inflation rate be?, is now settled (see the guide to UK CPI inflation in 2026).

Jobs, pay and growth since the September vote

The ONS labour market overview of 20 October estimated unemployment at 4.7% for June to August, down 0.1 percentage points on the quarter, and growth in regular pay at 3.7% on a year earlier, or 3.0% in the private sector. Pay matters because second-round effects, where dearer energy feeds into wages and prices, run partly through it.

The ONS monthly GDP estimate of 15 October showed growth of 0.1% in August after 0.4% in July, and 0.7% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May. How much slack, or spare capacity, is left is one point the committee's two camps weigh differently.

What the committee has said

The committee has held at all six 2026 meetings: in February four of nine members wanted a cut, but from April on every dissenter wanted a rise, one in April, two in June and three in both July and September.

In September Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for a rise; the other six, including the Governor, Andrew Bailey, voted to hold. The three said stronger growth suggested slack may already have peaked and that a rise would help anchor inflation expectations; the six said activity and tight financial conditions were restraining inflation, though they too saw the risk of second-round effects growing. The committee judged the risks to inflation tilted to the upside.

On 17 September the Governor said, on the Bank's Bank Rate page, that the longer energy price volatility lasts, the more likely it is that the Bank will need to raise Bank Rate. Clare Lombardelli, who voted to hold, said on 24 September that policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if high energy prices persist, unless there is clear evidence of falling inflation or weaker activity. Alan Taylor, also for a hold, wrote in the minutes that more tightening was not warranted at present.

On 20 October Megan Greene said in a speech at the London School of Economics that pay growth looks likely to settle closer to 3.5% than 3%, that there is less labour market slack than the committee had thought, and that the Bank should proactively lean against the risk of second-round effects; the speech notes that her views are not necessarily the committee's.

How the prediction settles

The versus prediction What will the Bank of England do with rates on 5 Nov? has five answers: 50+ bps decrease, 25 bps decrease, no change, 25 bps increase and 50+ bps increase. A basis point (bps) is one hundredth of a percentage point, so from 3.75% a 25 bps increase means 4%.

It settles on how far Bank Rate moves at the November meeting, compared with its level just before, as the Bank's own announcement shows. Once that is out, the matching answer settles at 100p and the other four at 0p (what market resolution means). Odd-sized moves are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, and anything under 25 bps counts as 25. A meeting moved to a date before the next scheduled one still counts; a cancelled meeting, or one pushed back further, settles as no change. An emergency move between meetings does not count. The prediction's end date is 11:59 UK time (GMT) on 5 November, a minute before the announcement.

At 07:12 UK time on 26 October 2026 the page also showed 0.6p for a rise of 50 bps or more, 0.2p for a 25 bps cut and 0.2p for a cut of 50 bps or more. Prices of separate answers need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities).

Dates left before the decision, and the one after

• Friday 30 October, 9:30am (GMT): the Blue Book. The ONS publishes its annual national accounts, UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2026, with a release on the GDP revisions they bring, which can change the picture of how much slack is left.
• Until the meeting: energy prices. They have no release date, but the September minutes called the Middle East conflict and its effect on energy prices the dominant source of uncertainty.
• Thursday 5 November, 12 noon (GMT): the decision. The meeting ends on Wednesday 4 November. At 12 noon the Bank publishes the decision, each member's vote and the minutes (release page, MPC dates), with the November Monetary Policy Report and its projections. A hold matches the no change answer, a rise to 4% the 25 bps increase and a rise to 4.25% or more the 50+ bps increase.
• Wednesday 18 November, 7:00am (GMT): ONS inflation for October (release page). It comes after the decision and cannot affect this prediction.
• Thursday 17 December, 12 noon (GMT): the last decision of 2026 (release page). It does not count for this prediction.

Before you trade

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Frequently asked questions

When does the Bank of England announce its next interest rate decision?

At 12 noon UK time (GMT) on Thursday 5 November 2026, with the November Monetary Policy Report at the same time. The last decision of 2026 follows on 17 December.

What is Bank Rate now, and when did it last change?

3.75%, according to the Bank's Bank Rate page on 26 October 2026. Its history table shows the last change was a cut from 4% on 18 December 2025.

Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in November 2026?

Nobody outside the committee can say before 12 noon on 5 November. Three of nine members voted for a rise in September and inflation has since risen to 3.5%; at 07:12 UK time on 26 October 2026 the versus page showed 96.8p for a 25 bps increase.

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