Will the US Confirm Aliens Exist? What the UAP Files Say

As of 25 October 2026 the US government has not confirmed that aliens exist, even after the Department of War published its seventh release of declassified UAP (unidentified anomalous phenomena) files on Friday 23 October. On versus at 06:45 UK time on 25 October 2026, Yes on the prediction Will US officials confirm alien life by 31 Dec? showed 4.7p, the market's estimate of a 4.7% chance at that moment, and a price can move fast.

The department still calls the files in its archive unresolved cases, and the FAQ of its anomaly office, AARO, still answers no when asked whether the department has found any evidence of extraterrestrial technology. This guide is for readers in Great Britain.

The Short Answer

• A seventh release, but no confirmation. The 23 October files join six earlier releases since 8 May 2026. The department's own page calls the whole archive unresolved cases, and no date has been named for the next release.
• The 30 September date has passed. The official pages checked on 25 October show no confirmation, though the date prediction still lists that answer.
• The files prediction is settled. It asked about declassified files, not about aliens.

What the US Government Has Released

These details come from the Department of War's own pages, including WAR.GOV/UFO, checked on 25 October 2026.

• 19 February 2026: the President said on Truth Social that he would direct the Secretary of War and other departments and agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files on alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena and UFOs.
• 8 May 2026: the first release under PURSUE, the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters, an interagency effort that includes the White House, intelligence agencies, the Department of Energy, AARO, NASA and the FBI. The department said the files had been reviewed for security, but many had not yet been analysed to resolve any anomalies.
• 22 May to 18 September 2026: releases two to six, on 22 May, 12 June, 10 July, 7 August and 18 September.
• 23 October 2026: the seventh release, which the department's statement describes as declassified and historical UAP files, adding that work on the next release is under way.
• The archive: on 25 October the WAR.GOV/UFO database counted 478 files, 28 of them from the seventh release, which the page marks as having no videos.

What the Government Says the Files Show

• Unresolved cases. The PURSUE page says these are cases where the government cannot make a definitive determination about what was observed, for reasons that include a lack of sufficient data.
• Unidentified is not extraterrestrial. AARO's FAQ says sightings are often classed as unidentified simply because sensors could not collect enough information, and it lists common causes of reports such as balloons, aircraft, drones, rocket launches, satellites and bright planets.

An unresolved case is one the government cannot explain yet, which is not the same as one it has explained as extraterrestrial.

How the Confirmation Predictions Settle

Every market on versus names the source that settles it before you trade. When will the US government confirm aliens are real? has two answers, the dates 30 September and 31 December. Will US officials confirm alien life by 31 Dec? asks the same thing as Yes or No. The rules, in short:

• What has to happen: an authorised US official or federal agency must state definitively that alien life or alien technology is real. The Yes or No prediction adds that the statement must be public and direct, so hints, sightings, leaks, private claims and objects nobody can identify are not enough.
• Who can make it: the President, a Cabinet member, one of the Joint Chiefs, or a federal agency.
• The cut-off: 11:59pm US Eastern time on 31 December 2026, which is 04:59 UK time (GMT) on 1 January 2027. The date prediction gives the same moment as 5:59am CET.
• The source: official US government information comes first. The date prediction also accepts credible reporting that broadly agrees, and the Yes or No prediction lets several reputable reports back up a statement that is already unambiguous. Otherwise each resolves as a no.

The key word is "definitively": a file release or an unresolved case does not meet it, and whether a future statement counts is for the rules to decide, not this article.

At 06:45 UK time on 25 October 2026 the versus pages showed Yes at 4.7p and No at 95.4p on the Yes or No prediction, and 4.7p for 31 December and 0.1p for 30 September on the date prediction. Each price is the market's estimate of a chance, and prices of separate answers do not have to add up to 100p.

The Files Prediction Is Settled

Will Trump declassify secret UFO files by 31 Oct? asked a narrower question: whether the administration would declassify files on extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial phenomena that had never been public before, between 22 September and 11:59pm US Eastern time on 31 October 2026 (03:59 UK time, GMT, on 1 November). Official US government information was the main basis, with wide agreement among reliable reports also weighed, and an announcement alone would not have counted. The official fact on the record is the Department of War's seventh release of 23 October, which it describes as declassified and historical UAP files; readers can compare it with the two answers themselves. versus lists the prediction as settled. It was a question about files, not about whether aliens exist.

What Comes Next

• The next file release: no date has been named, though the PURSUE page speaks of new batches every few weeks. A new release would add to the archive, but on its own it would not be the definitive statement the two live predictions need.
• 11:59pm US Eastern time on 31 December 2026 (04:59 UK time, GMT, on 1 January 2027): the cut-off for both confirmation predictions. Only a definitive confirmation by an authorised official or agency before then meets their rules; without one, both resolve as a no.

Before you trade

Read the rules first: they say who can confirm, what counts as definitive and the exact cut-off. Releasing files and confirming that aliens exist are different events, so be clear which one you are trading. A winning contract settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p, so you can lose the whole amount you put into a position. versus adds a 2% transaction fee on top of the stake and shows it before you confirm, and while a market is open you can sell at the current price. There is no leverage and no margin call. Prediction markets are entertainment with real money at stake, not a way to make money.

versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143, which you can check on the Commission's public register. Positions settle in ordinary money, not cryptocurrency, and customer money is held separately from company money. Safer Play offers deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP. How it works follows one position from opening to settlement, and how to verify market rules goes through a rules text line by line.

Frequently asked questions

Has the US government confirmed that aliens exist?

No. On 25 October 2026 the Department of War still called its archive unresolved cases, and AARO's FAQ still answered no on evidence of extraterrestrial technology.

How many UAP files has the US released?

On 25 October 2026 the WAR.GOV/UFO database counted 478 files from seven releases, the first on 8 May and the seventh on 23 October. The seventh added 28 files and no videos.

When is the next release of UAP files?

No date has been named. The Department of War says it is working on the next release and will keep publishing files on a rolling basis.

Does a release of UFO files settle the confirmation predictions?

No. They need a definitive confirmation that alien life or technology exists by their cut-off of 04:59 UK time (GMT) on 1 January 2027.

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