New Zealand Election 2026: Latest Polls and Who Could Govern

New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November 2026, with voting places open since 26 October, and the 1News Verian poll published on 27 October shows no party near a majority on its own: National was on 29% and Labour on 27%. At 06:54 UK time on 27 October 2026 the versus prediction on which party wins the most seats showed 60p for National Party and 34.5p for Labour Party.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain and is not advice.

The latest polls, by pollster and date

Polls are snapshots, not forecasts, each with a margin of error of about 3 points. Party vote in percent, by publication date:

• 1News Verian, 27 October (report, 1,000 voters, fieldwork 21 to 25 October): National 29, Labour 27, Greens 15, ACT 12, New Zealand First 10, Opportunity 6, Te Pāti Māori 0.1. Christopher Luxon led Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, 24% to 18%.
• Freshwater Strategy for The Post, data published 21 October (data tables, 1,209 likely voters, fieldwork 9 to 19 October): Labour 28.7, National 27.6, Greens 14.3, New Zealand First 11.8, ACT 9.0, Opportunity 5.4, Te Pāti Māori 2.0.
• 1News Verian, 20 October (report, 1,003 voters, fieldwork 15 to 19 October): National 32, Labour 27, Greens 16, ACT 11, New Zealand First 8, Opportunity 7, Te Pāti Māori under 1.

How seats turn into a government

Under mixed member proportional voting (MMP), each voter has a party vote and an electorate vote, and the party vote largely sets each party's share of the 120 seats (Electoral Commission). A party needs at least 5% of the party vote or one electorate win to get any seats (how MPs are elected). There are 71 electorates, 64 general and 7 Māori (electorates).

A party that wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to keeps the extra seats and the House grows, an overhang: the current Parliament has 123 MPs, the Commission says. 1News reads its 27 October poll two ways. If Te Pāti Māori wins only one seat, the House has 121 MPs and the 61 projected for National, ACT and New Zealand First is enough. If it keeps four and Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi holds her seat, there are 125 MPs, 63 are needed, and Opportunity's projected eight MPs would hold the balance. Te Pāti Māori polled 0.1% to 2% in the three polls above, so its seats rest on the Māori electorates.

The biggest party does not always govern: in 2017 National won 56 seats to Labour's 46 (2017 result), yet Labour formed the government in coalition with New Zealand First (Speech from the Throne).

Voting and results in UK time

New Zealand has been on daylight time since 27 September (govt.nz) and the UK on GMT since 25 October (gov.uk), so UK time is New Zealand time minus 13 hours.

• Already past: enrolment closed at midnight New Zealand time on Sunday 25 October (11:00 UK time, GMT), and voting opened on Monday 26 October, with 207 voting places planned for the first day (Electoral Commission, 22 October).
• Friday 6 November, 20:00 UK time: more than 2,300 voting places open at 9am on Saturday in New Zealand.
• Saturday 7 November, 00:00 UK time: the end date of all five versus predictions, 1pm in New Zealand.
• Saturday 7 November, 06:00 UK time: voting closes at 7pm and preliminary results begin. The Commission targets results from half of voting places by 09:00 UK time and 95% by 10:30 UK time (election results site).
• Friday 27 November: the Commission expects to publish official results; the writ is due back by 3 December (Beehive release).

How the five versus predictions settle

All five end at 00:00 UK time on 7 November and settle later on the result (when markets close), with a fallback if nothing is definite by early on 1 November 2027 UK time (1 January 2028 for the prime minister and coalition ones). A price from 0p to 100p is the market's estimate of a chance, and prices need not add up to 100p. Readings are from 06:54 UK time on 27 October 2026.

• Most seats. Which party comes out on top in New Zealand? counts seats, not votes, and a tie goes to the party with more party votes. Credible reporting decides, and official results settle any doubt. The page showed 60p for National Party and 34.5p for Labour Party. In 2023 National won 48 seats and Labour 34.
• Prime minister. Who will lead New Zealand after the vote? settles on the next person the Governor-General formally appoints as prime minister; a caretaker does not count. The page showed 54.5p for Christopher Luxon, the prime minister, and 44p for Chris Hipkins, the Labour leader.
• Coalition. Which coalition will run New Zealand? settles on the first governing coalition, counting only parties with a Cabinet post. Opportunity is not among the six parties considered, so a coalition including it would be matched on its other members. The page showed 51.5p for National + ACT + NZF, the current coalition, 26.5p for Labour + Green and 16.5p for Labour + Green + Maori.
• Margin. How wide will the winning margin be in New Zealand? is the gap in points between the top two parties' party vote shares in the official results; electorate votes do not count. The page showed 45.5p for Labour 0-5%, 38.5p for National 0-5% and 18.7p for National 5-10%. In 2023 the gap was about 11 points, National 38.08% to Labour 26.92% (2023 result).
• Turnout. How high will New Zealand's election turnout be? takes votes cast as a share of electors on the master roll, from the official results, and a figure exactly on a bracket edge goes to the higher bracket. For 2023 that measure gives 78.20% (official results table), while the Commission's turnout statistics show 77.51%, a different bracket. The page showed 36p for 76-78% and 33.5p for 78-80%.

What could still change the outcome

• The 5% line. Opportunity polled 5.4% to 7% in the three latest polls and, 1News says, would enter Parliament for the first time. Under 5% and without an electorate, it would get no seats.
• Special votes. They take longer to process (Commission report) and are part of the official count. In 2023 they were 582,553 of 2,851,211 valid party votes, about one in five, and the official results that include them are expected on 27 November.
• Coalition talks. The prime minister and coalition predictions wait for ministers to be appointed. In 2023, 44 days passed from polling day on 14 October to the appointment of the new ministry on 27 November.

Before you trade

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Frequently asked questions

When is the New Zealand election?

Saturday 7 November 2026, and voting places have been open since 26 October. Election day voting places are open from 20:00 on Friday 6 November to 06:00 on Saturday 7 November UK time (GMT).

Who is ahead in the New Zealand election polls?

It depends on the poll: 1News Verian (27 October) had National 29% and Labour 27%, while Freshwater Strategy for The Post (21 October) had Labour 28.7% and National 27.6%. No party is near half the seats, so coalition talks decide who governs.

When will the result be known?

Preliminary results start from 06:00 UK time on 7 November, and official results are expected on 27 November. Forming a government can take longer: it took 44 days in 2023.

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