Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, on or before 11:59 PM ET on 31 October 2026 (03:59 UTC on 1 November), Google makes Gemini 4.0 available to the general public. A model counts if Google names it Gemini 4.0 or if it is recognised as the successor to Gemini 3, as Gemini 3.0 followed Gemini 2.0; Gemini 2.5, Gemini 3.0 Flash and similar models do not count. The model must have launched and be publicly accessible, which includes an open beta or an open rolling waitlist; a closed beta or any private access does not count. Either Google clearly announces that the model is accessible to the general public, or it is in fact publicly accessible and carries its version name on Google's official website; a mislabelled page, placeholder text or a version name that does not match a model the public can actually use does not count. Otherwise NO. Google's official information is the primary basis for deciding the outcome, with agreement among reliable reports used for verification.
Reported by versus Markets
