Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:13 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 40% chance and No at 60%.
YES applies if the next Google Gemini model with “Pro” in its label that is newly listed in the Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) results at agi.safe.ai shows an HLE Accuracy of 40% or more at 12:00 PM ET the day after it first appears there (days counted as calendar dates in ET). The figure used is the “HLE Accuracy” percentage in that model's result card in the chart titled “AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam” on agi.safe.ai; Calibration Error, chart position, scores for other configurations and any unrounded or more detailed data shown elsewhere are ignored. Any Gemini model labelled Pro can qualify, including a general-availability (GA) release of a model that already existed as a Preview; models labelled only as Flash or Flash-Lite, or as any other variant without Pro, do not. It does not matter whether the model was available to the public before it appeared on the site. A model taken off the site before that noon check does not count as listed. If several qualifying models first show up on the same calendar day (ET), the highest HLE Accuracy among them is used; qualifying models listed on any later day are ignored. If the site is down at the noon check, the first later moment when the model's HLE Accuracy can be read there is used. If the site is still unavailable when the seventh day after the model's first appearance ends, or if no qualifying Pro model has been listed by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
