Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:24 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 25% chance and No at 75%.
YES applies if the next newly added Gemini model labelled Pro on the Arena text leaderboard scores at least 1,480 at noon ET on the calendar date after its first listing. Flash and other non-Pro variants do not qualify; whether the Pro model was released or accessible before leaderboard listing is irrelevant. If several eligible models first appear on one ET calendar date, use the highest score; later additions are ignored. Read the Text Arena Overall Score with style control off, using the Score column rather than underlying unrounded data. If the score is missing at noon the next day, use the first later leaderboard instance when it becomes available; if it is still missing at the end of the seventh day, the answer is NO. If no eligible model appears by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
