Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:19 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES requires Google to make its next qualifying general-purpose Gemini Flash model publicly accessible between 3 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC and 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Its name or identifier must contain Gemini and Flash, with version 3.9 or above; capitalization, surrounding descriptors and dates do not change eligibility. A whole-number successor such as version 4 qualifies. Flash-Lite is excluded, as are versions below 3.9, including further snapshots, promotions or rollouts of the Gemini 3.8 Flash release dated 2 September 2026. Specialized image, Omni, Cyber, TTS and Live variants do not qualify. Access through a public beta or openly available rolling waitlist is sufficient; private access and closed testing are not. Google must either publicly announce that general access is available or actually provide it with explicit identification on its official website. Placeholder names, labelling mistakes and an inaccessible model do not qualify. Google’s official information is primary, supported by agreement among reliable news reports. Without a qualifying public release by the cutoff, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
