Prediction
Answer Options
Settles on who wins the second round of Brazil's presidential election, scheduled for 25 October 2026, and by how many points; the question opens at 19:31:58 UTC on 5 October 2026 (3:31:58 PM ET) and ends at 03:59 UTC on 26 October 2026 (11:59 PM ET on 25 October). The margin is the winner's share of the valid votes minus the runner-up's share, in percentage points, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast; blank and invalid ballots are not valid votes. Each answer names Flávio Bolsonaro or Lula and one range: under 4 points, 4 to 8 points, 8 to 12 points, or 12 points or more. Only the answer whose candidate wins with a margin inside its range settles YES, and every other answer settles NO. If the reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, it counts toward the higher range. If anyone other than Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula comes first in the valid-vote count, or the top two candidates finish with exactly equal valid-vote totals, the outcome is Other and every listed answer settles NO. The result is taken from the official count of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) once that count is final. If a recount begins before the vote total is official, settlement waits until the recount ends and the resulting total is official. The outcome is decided by broad agreement among credible reports and, if the result stays ambiguous, only by the official results published by the TSE. If the result is not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027, the outcome is Other and every listed answer settles NO.
Reported by versus Markets
