Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:04 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if, no later than 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, Lake Okeechobee in Florida is officially given the name Trump Lake, Lake Trump or a similar name honouring Donald Trump through federal action: an executive order issued by Trump, a bill he signs into law, any other official renaming by him, or a renaming by the US Board on Geographic Names (BGN). Nicknames, informal use and proposals that are not adopted do not count, and neither does a renaming by Florida or another state alone unless Trump or the BGN also adopts the name by the deadline. If no qualifying renaming happens by then, the answer is NO. Statements from the Trump administration or the BGN are the primary record; broad agreement in reliable news reports that the US government has renamed the lake in this way is also sufficient.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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