Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:12 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 56% chance and No at 44%.
This prediction is about Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs. Only the first new government set up after the Knesset election scheduled for 27 October 2026 counts, and within it only the first person who takes that office. The appointment counts only once the Knesset has approved it, either in the confidence vote for that government or in a later vote approving that person's appointment to it. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and once a qualifying minister has taken office, later replacements change nothing. A post with another title counts only if broad, reliable news coverage confirms it as the successor post that keeps the main responsibilities of the foreign ministry; a post that takes over only secondary duties does not count. If those main responsibilities are split among several successor posts, the person appointed to one of them whose full name comes first alphabetically is chosen. YES if no qualifying foreign minister has taken office by 11:59 PM ET on 28 February 2027. NO if any person, listed on versus or not, has taken office as a qualifying foreign minister by then. Official information from the Government of Israel decides, with reliable news coverage as support.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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