Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 08:56 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 85% chance and No at 15%.
YES means Jim Jordan himself makes an explicit, genuine announcement seeking the highest Republican leadership post in the House for the January 2027 Congress during the period beginning when this prediction opened and ending with the Conference election. Speaker qualifies; if that post is unavailable, the Conference’s top leadership post qualifies. Sarcasm, conditional or disavowed remarks, and third-party speculation do not. A qualifying announcement remains YES despite later withdrawal or defeat. Without one by the election, or by 31 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET if no election occurs, the result is NO. Jordan’s own official statements lead, with dependable reporting as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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