Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:56 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 45-50% at a 44% chance, ahead of Democrat 35-40% at 44% and Democrat 30-35% at 43%.
YES goes to the answer that matches the certified result of the U.S. House general election in California's 36th congressional district (CA-36), expected on 3 November 2026. The lead is the gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the first-place and second-place candidates, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. Every range is a lead in points between first and second place, not the winner's share of the vote: for example, a Democrat who beats a rival by 68% to 32% has a lead of 36 points, which is “Democratic lead from 35 to under 40 points”. Each Democratic answer applies when the winner appears on the general-election ballot as a Democratic Party candidate (also in a race between two Democrats) and the lead falls inside that answer's range; “Republican win by any margin” applies when a Republican Party candidate on that ballot finishes first, whatever the lead. A lead exactly on a boundary goes to the higher range (for example, exactly 15 points is “Democratic lead from 15 to under 25 points” and exactly 55 points is “Democratic lead of 55 points or more”). If the winner is neither a Democrat nor a Republican, every listed answer is NO. If first place is shared by two or more candidates with equal valid votes, the result goes to the lowest answer of a tied candidate's party (“Democratic lead from 0 to under 15 points” for a Democrat, “Republican win by any margin” for a Republican); if more than one tied candidate is a Democrat or Republican, use the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically, and if no tied candidate is a Democrat or Republican, every listed answer is NO. The count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before that, the result waits until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. At most one listed answer can be YES. Official results certified by the California Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
