Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 36% chance and No at 64%.
YES applies if Markwayne Mullin is announced as leaving the Trump administration, resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be an administration member by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline counts immediately even if the effective date is later. The administration covers people formally appointed by Donald Trump to U.S. federal roles publicly announced through official government channels; a temporary leave or role change that keeps him in the administration does not count. Official administration information is primary, with a convergent independent reporting as fallback. If he remains a member through the deadline, NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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