Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:59 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Ted Cruz at a 55% chance, ahead of J.D. Vance at 36% and Donald Trump Jr. at 26%.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in that election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run, or has formed an exploratory committee, will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by 05:59 CET on January 1, 2028, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, a subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (e.g. via speech, social media, etc.); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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