Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
This prediction concerns the first government taking office after Sweden's 13 Sep 2026 parliamentary election, with a cutoff of 23:59 ET on 31 Jul 2027. YES if M + SD is the winning group under the comparison below; every other winning group means NO. A party counts only when it supplies a cabinet minister. Parliamentary support without a minister does not count. Consider only M (Moderate Party), SD (Sweden Democrats), S (Swedish Social Democratic Party), C (Centre Party), V (Left Party), L (Liberals), KD (Christian Democrats) and MP (Green Party). Disregard all other parties. The candidate groups are: S + MP + C; S + MP + C + V; S + MP; S + MP + V; S + C; S; S + C + V; S + V; M + KD + L; M + KD + L + SD; M + KD + L + C; S + MP + C + L; S + MP + L; S + M; S + C + L; S + MP + C + KD; M + KD + SD; M + KD; M + SD; M. A group is eligible only when every party it names has a cabinet minister. Among eligible groups, choose the one naming the largest number of cabinet parties. If several groups have that same size, prefer the group with the greatest combined seat total in the newly elected Riksdag; a further tie is broken by the groups' combined valid votes in the 2026 election. A government with just one party is represented by that party's own candidate group. If none of the groups fits, the result is NO. Government formation may be established after the Riksdag votes on the Prime Minister and the cabinet takes office. Delays do not extend the cutoff: no confirmed new government by that time means NO. Consistent reporting across reputable news outlets establishes the result. If that leaves uncertainty, use the Swedish government's official publications together with those of the Riksdag.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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