Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:01 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 13% chance and Democratic Party at 90%.
For the 3 November 2026 ET calendar date of the U.S. midterm, identify who wins the NY-03 seat in the House. The winner's listed party is YES and the other party answer is NO. Party identity follows the ballot affiliation or another clear affiliation at the point when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. If no Democratic or Republican affiliation is listed, use the party with which that candidate most recently stated an intention to caucus at that point. Agreement among reputable election reports decides the result; a conflict is settled from the official U.S. Federal Election Commission result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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