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As of 30 October 2026, 08:17 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 13% chance and No at 87%.
YES if Democratic candidates win exactly 4 of Arizona's voting seats in the 2026 US House elections that decide the 120th Congress; any other number is NO. Every regular 2026 House race in Arizona counts, with a runoff deciding its seat where one is held; a special election to fill out an unexpired term does not count, even when held on the same day. Each seat goes to the party under which the winner was elected, even if that member later switches party or leaves the seat. A winner elected as an independent counts for a party only if, before Election Day 2026, they formally caucus or announce they will caucus with it; if that is still unclear on Election Day, this prediction stays open until such an announcement or 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first, and without an announcement by then the member counts for no party. Official results from Arizona election authorities and the US Congress decide, backed by broad agreement among reliable news reports.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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