Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:13 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES if Lionel Messi wins Argentina's next presidential election, scheduled for 24 Oct 2027, including a runoff if one is needed. NO if another candidate wins, including an unlisted candidate, or if no definitive result is available by 23:59 US Eastern Time (America/New_York) on 31 Oct 2028. Agreement across reliable news coverage determines the winner. Where that evidence is ambiguous, only official election results from Argentine government bodies count; these include the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral. A tied result, postponement or cancellation does not itself select a winner: any runoff or rescheduled vote remains part of this election, subject to the same final cutoff. If cancellation leaves no definitive winner by that cutoff, the prediction settles NO. Winning this election is required; a nomination, a polling lead or taking office through another route does not count. Taking office is not an additional requirement after an election win.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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