Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:14 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 95% chance and Democratic Party at 9%.
For the U.S. House seat of New York’s 11th congressional district (NY-11), use the party of the candidate elected in the 3 November 2026 midterm. Party identity is the ballot-listed or otherwise clearly identified affiliation at the point when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. If no Democratic or Republican affiliation is listed, use the candidate’s most recently stated intention to caucus with one of those parties at that point. Broad agreement in credible election coverage determines the result; if there is ambiguity, use the official U.S. result from the Federal Election Commission. The matching displayed party is YES and the other is NO; if neither displayed party matches, both are NO. There is no deadline for the result: 11:59 PM ET on 3 November 2026 is not a cutoff, and if the race is still uncalled then, or a recount or late count follows, settlement waits for the conclusive result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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