Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:58 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sánchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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