Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This prediction covers the election of all 60 members of El Salvador's Legislative Assembly, scheduled for 28 February 2027. Each party's starting seat count comes from the certified final results of the 4 February 2024 election: 54 seats for Nuevas Ideas (NI), 2 each for ARENA and PCN, 1 each for PDC and Vamos, and none for any other party. Resignations, replacements, defections or changes of parliamentary group after 2024 do not alter these starting numbers. A party's gain equals the seats credited to it in the official 2027 results minus its starting count; the gain may be zero or negative. Seats credited to a different party or electoral label do not count, whatever cooperation, endorsements, coalition deals or later group arrangements exist. YES if PAIS has the largest seat gain of all parties. If parties share the largest gain, the one with more valid votes goes first; if still level, the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically. NO if any other party, listed on versus or not, comes out on top. NO as well if the results are not definitely known by 11:59 PM ET on 29 February 2028. The outcome follows matching reports from reputable news outlets; where these are unclear, the official results of El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE, tse.gob.sv) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
