Prediction
Answer Options
This prediction is about the UK Parliament by-election for the Holborn and St Pancras constituency, scheduled for 8 October 2026 after the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer, and asks which party's candidate comes first and by how many points. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates with the most and the second-most valid votes; each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes counted in the by-election, and votes count for a candidate only where the official result attributes them to that candidate. A Labour band is YES only if the Labour Party candidate comes first and the margin lies inside that band; a Green band is YES only if the Green Party candidate comes first and the margin lies inside that band. A margin exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If a candidate of any other party, or an independent, comes first, every answer is NO. If first place is shared by two or more candidates with equal votes, the lowest band (0 to under 5 points) of the tied candidate whose party name comes first alphabetically is YES; if that candidate is neither the Labour nor the Green candidate, every answer is NO. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. At most one answer is YES. Broad agreement in reliable news reports decides; where that is ambiguous, only the official result published by Camden Council decides.
Reported by versus Markets
