Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:56 UTC, versus prices Adriel Lam (R) at a 4% chance and Ed Case (D) at 97%.
YES goes to the answer for the party whose candidate wins the seat for Hawaii's 1st congressional district (HI-01) in the U.S. House at the midterm election on 3 November 2026. The answers stand for parties, not people: the name in brackets is that party's candidate as currently listed, and if a different candidate of the same party takes the seat, that party's answer is still YES. The winner's party is the one shown next to their name on the ballot, or another party they are clearly identified with, judged at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. A winner who is on the ballot as neither a Democrat nor a Republican counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they would caucus with, judged at that same moment. If the winner cannot be placed with either party in this way, both answers are NO, so at most one answer can be YES. The scheduled end time is 3 November 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (04:59 UTC on 4 November 2026), but there is no cut-off for the result: settlement waits until the race is called, however long counting or certification takes. Matching race calls from reliable news organisations decide. If the outcome is unclear, only the official U.S. results published by the Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
