Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 30 October 2026, 08:59 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 35% chance and No at 65%.
YES if Switzerland adopts the federal decree dated 19 June 2026 that raises VAT to give extra money to the AVS (AHV in German: Switzerland's state old-age and survivors' insurance) in the nationwide popular vote planned for Sunday 29 November 2026, under the legal threshold that applies to it; otherwise NO. As a change to the Federal Constitution, it needs both a majority of the valid votes nationwide (the people) and a majority of the cantons, so a national yes without a majority of the cantons gives NO. If an initiative and a federal counter-proposal were on the ballot together, approval of either would count, whatever the tie-break question shows. If the vote is officially moved to another date, the same rules apply to the new ballot and its deadlines. If the definitive result is still not known on the date of the next nationwide Swiss popular vote after this one (Swiss local time), the answer is NO. A broad agreement among reliable news reports decides; if that is unclear, only the certified official results published by the Swiss authorities, such as the Federal Chancellery and the ch.ch votes portal, decide. Later court cases, administrative challenges or a failure to implement the decree after approval do not change the outcome.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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