Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:01 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 3-6% at a 38% chance, ahead of Republican 6-9% at 30% and Republican 0-3% at 23%.
This prediction covers the regular 2026 general election for the U.S. House seat of Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (WI-01), scheduled for 3 November 2026. YES goes to the displayed band that matches both the winner's party and the size of the win. The winning margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates placed first and second; each share is that candidate's valid votes as a percentage of all valid votes in the race. A band naming a party and a range is YES when that party's nominee finishes first and the margin lies inside the range. Democrat means the nominee of the Democratic Party and Republican means the nominee of the Republican Party; independent and third-party candidates stand for neither party. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement nominee counts. A margin landing exactly on the line between two bands belongs to the band with the larger margin. For a tie for first place between the two party nominees, use the smallest-margin band of the party whose nominee's surname, as printed on the ballot, comes first in alphabetical order (the surname decides even though the bands show only party names); for a tie between one party nominee and any other candidate, use the smallest-margin band of that nominee's party. The final official vote count decides; if a recount starts before the count is official, settlement waits until the recount is complete and its result is official. Every displayed band is NO if the winner is neither the Democratic nor the Republican nominee, if a first-place tie involves only candidates other than the two party nominees, or if no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET; in every other case exactly one displayed band is YES. Official results from the Wisconsin state election authority that certifies the race decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
