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As of 30 October 2026, 09:04 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 22% chance and No at 78%.
This comparison covers the 2026 U.S. Senate general elections in Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska, scheduled for 3 November 2026. For each state, calculate the Republican candidate's share as valid votes for that Republican divided by all valid votes in the state's Senate election. For any runoff, ranked-choice tally, or other repeated count, use the final count in which at least one Republican remains, and count only ballots that have not been exhausted; if several Republicans remain, use the one with the higher share. Rank equal shares alphabetically by state. YES applies if Iowa ranks lowest among Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska whose shares are available by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Exclude any state without a determinable share by that cutoff; if Iowa is unavailable, YES cannot apply and the answer is NO. Information from the responsible state election authorities or a consensus of credible election reporting decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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