Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:15 UTC, versus prices Abraham Hamadeh (R) at a 87% chance and Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) at 17%.
YES goes to the option for the party whose candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Arizona's 8th congressional district (AZ-08) at the general election on 3 November 2026 (all dates in ET). The Republican option is YES if that winner is a Republican and the Democratic option is YES if the winner is a Democrat; at most one option can be YES. The winner's party is the one shown on the ballot, or otherwise clearly identifiable, at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. A winner listed on the ballot without either major-party affiliation is assigned to the party with which he or she most recently stated an intention to caucus at that same moment. If the winner cannot be assigned to either party this way, both options are NO. Reliable news reporting establishes the result; if it is ambiguous, only the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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