Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:14 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 6% chance and Democratic Party at 98%.
At most one listed party receives YES: the party whose candidate takes the U.S. House seat for Oregon's 4th congressional district (OR-04) in the 2026 midterm House election, held on 3 November 2026 (ET). The outcome is settled once the race has been clearly called, however long the count takes. The winner's party is fixed at the moment every 2026 House contest has a conclusive call: use the winner's ballot designation or other identifiable party affiliation at that moment. If neither Democratic nor Republican appears on the ballot for the winner, use the party with which the winner had most recently said, as of that moment, they intended to caucus; later switches do not matter. If the winner cannot be assigned to either party under these rules, both answers are NO. First consult broad trustworthy election coverage; if it is ambiguous, only the official results published by the U.S. government through the Federal Election Commission decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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