Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 96% chance and No at 4%.
YES requires Anthropic to make its next Fable model publicly accessible by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET: a model whose name or identifier includes Fable and whose version is 5.2 or higher, including a later whole-number generation such as Fable 6; capitalization and surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates or descriptors do not change that test. The model must be genuinely available to the general public, including an open beta or open rolling waitlist; private or closed access does not qualify. The release must either be clearly announced by Anthropic as public or be publicly accessible and explicitly identified on Anthropic’s official website. Placeholder or labeling errors do not qualify, nor do names without Fable or versions below 5.2, such as Fable 5.1. Official information from Anthropic is primary; reliable news coverage may also be used to confirm it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
