Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:10 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 45% chance and No at 55%.
Resolves YES if, between 15:40:12 UTC (11:40:12 AM ET) on 12 October 2026 and 04:59 UTC on 1 January 2027 (11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026), the US federal government brings a formal criminal charge against Ilhan Omar or announces that she has been criminally indicted. Only a charge brought by the US federal government counts, in whatever court it is filed; a charge brought by a state, by the District of Columbia's own authorities, or by a county, city or other local government does not count. Statements and records of US government bodies, such as the Justice Department or a federal court, are the main basis; broad agreement among credible reports also counts. If official information is revised, the latest official version controls, and where it conflicts with reporting, the official information prevails. Otherwise NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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