Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:59 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican lead: 20 to under 25 points at a 31% chance, ahead of Republican lead: 5 to under 10 points at 24% and Republican lead: 15 to under 20 points at 20%.
Use the certified result of the TX-14 House election scheduled for 3 November 2026. Compute the percentage-point gap between the two leading candidates from their valid vote totals divided by the total valid votes cast in that election. Choose the bracket for the winning party and that gap; the higher bracket owns an exact boundary. Democratic and Republican answers follow their formal nominees, including any replacement nominee appointed before election day; independent candidates do not enter either party answer. If listed candidates tie for first place, use the lowest bracket for the ballot surname that sorts first. A tie between a listed and unlisted candidate uses the listed candidate’s lowest bracket, while a tie only among unlisted candidates yields Other. For a party-only answer, use that nominee’s ballot-listed surname for the tie-break. A recount started before the tally becomes official must finish, and its tally must become official, before settlement. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, Other applies. The relevant state electoral authority’s certified tally is primary, with overwhelming agreement across reputable reporting as fallback. The answer matching the result is YES and the others are NO. When Other applies, every displayed party bracket is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
