Prediction
Answer Options
YES goes to the band that contains the seasonally adjusted, annualised growth rate of US real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 (July to September) in the advance estimate of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), scheduled for release on 29 October 2026. This is the annual-rate figure the BEA headlines, not the plain change from the previous quarter. A figure exactly on the line between two bands counts for the higher band. Only the advance estimate counts; revisions published after it, including the second and third estimates, are ignored. If no advance estimate is released, the first official real GDP figure for that quarter that the BEA publishes (for example its second or third estimate) is used instead. If the BEA has published no official estimate for that quarter by the date on which its advance estimate for the fourth quarter of 2026 is scheduled to appear, the most recent earlier GDP growth figure released by the BEA is used. Exactly one band is YES. The BEA's GDP release on bea.gov decides. All dates here refer to US Eastern Time (ET).
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