Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 08:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES if Carlos Peña Badillo is elected governor of the Mexican state of Zacatecas in its 2027 election, currently set for 6 June 2027; if anyone else is elected, NO. An interim or caretaker governor does not count as the winner. If the result is not definitively known by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Broad agreement among reliable reporting decides the result; if it is ambiguous, only the official results published by government bodies of Zacatecas and Mexico count, including the Electoral Institute of the State of Zacatecas (IEEZ) and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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