Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES only if Danae Figueroa wins the Tlaxcala gubernatorial election scheduled for 6 June 2027; if any other candidate wins, NO. An interim or caretaker Governor does not qualify. If the result is not known definitively by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Settle from broad agreement among reputable reports; when those reports leave doubt, use official Tlaxcala and Mexican government records, with the Tlaxcala Electoral Institute and Mexico's INE among the official records used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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