Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:58 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 48% chance and No at 52%.
YES if nobody takes up the post of Israel's Minister of Defense within the first government put together after Israel's 2026 Knesset election by 28 February 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. This includes the case where no such government has formed by that deadline. An appointment only counts once the Knesset backs that government in a confidence vote or later approves the person's appointment to it; interim or caretaker ministers do not count. A renamed successor post counts only if agreement among reputable news reports confirms it keeps the main Defense duties; a post that takes over only secondary duties does not. If the main duties are split across several successor posts, the appointee whose full name comes first alphabetically counts. NO if any person takes office with such Knesset approval on or before 28 February 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Once anyone qualifies, later replacements do not change the result. Official Government of Israel information decides, with agreement among reputable news reporting as support.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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