Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 08:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES if Amalia Castilla Madrid is elected governor of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo in the 2027 election, currently set for 6 June 2027. Only the person elected governor in that vote counts; anyone who holds the office as an interim or caretaker governor does not. If another candidate wins, NO. If the result is still not definitively known on 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Matching reports from reliable news organisations decide. If they disagree or the result is unclear, only official results from government bodies of Quintana Roo and Mexico decide, in particular the Quintana Roo Electoral Institute (IEQROO) and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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