Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
Count Democratic winners of all Florida U.S. House elections held as part of the 2026 midterms that elect voting members for the 120th Congress, including qualifying runoffs, but exclude vacancy-only special elections. Attribute each seat to the party under which its member was elected even if that member later changes party or vacates the seat. An independent member counts for a party if the member formally caucuses or announces intent to caucus with it before the 2026 election date. If that decision is unknown then, keep the count open until the earlier of the announcement or 4 January 2027 at 23:59 ET; without an announcement by then, count the member for no party. YES means the final Democratic count is fewer than four; four or more is NO. Relevant state election authorities, Congress and a consistent credible reporting consensus supply the evidence.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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