Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:12 UTC, versus prices Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) at a 4% chance and Shelley Moore Capito (R) at >99%.
YES goes to the listed nominee who wins West Virginia's 2026 election for US Senator, part of the midterm elections held on 3 November 2026 (local time), including any runoff; no other cutoff applies. A candidate represents a party only as that party's nominee; a candidate running as an independent is never treated as the Democratic or Republican option, whatever ties they have to either party. The names are shown for convenience: if a listed nominee is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, that answer follows the replacement nominee. If the winner is not the Democratic or Republican nominee, both listed answers are NO; so at most one listed answer is YES. The result is settled once the Associated Press, NBC and Fox News have all named the same candidate as the winner; if they have not all done so, the official certified result for West Virginia decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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