Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:12 UTC, versus prices Terri DeBoer (Republican nominee) at a 5% chance and Hillary Scholten (Democratic nominee) at 97%.
YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for Michigan's 3rd congressional district (MI-03) in the midterm general election on 3 November 2026. The two answers stand for the parties, not for particular people: if a party's candidate changes, its answer follows the new candidate. A winner's party is the party shown for them on the ballot or another clearly identifiable party affiliation, judged at the point when every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. A winner not listed on the ballot as a Democrat or a Republican counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that point. If the winner cannot be counted for either party in this way, both answers settle NO; at most one answer can be YES. Consistent reporting from several reputable news outlets decides the result; if there is any ambiguity, the official results reported by the U.S. Federal Election Commission decide. Dates refer to US Eastern Time (ET).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
