Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:18 UTC, versus prices Mike Carey (R) at a 64% chance and Don Leonard (D) at 40%.
YES goes to the answer for the party whose candidate wins the US House seat for Ohio's 15th congressional district (OH-15) in the 2026 midterm elections. Election day is 3 November 2026 (local time); no other cutoff applies. Only the winner's party counts, not the person: the candidates include Mike Carey (Republican) and Don Leonard (Democrat), and a replacement nominee still counts for their party's answer. A winner's party is their ballot-listed or other identifiable party affiliation at the moment all 2026 House races have been conclusively called. A winner without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that moment. If the winner counts for neither party, both listed answers are NO; so at most one listed answer is YES. The winner is established by agreement among reliable news reports; where there is doubt, only the official results published by the US Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
