Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
YES only if the Senate race in Maine has the smallest victory margin among every regular or special Senate election that determines representation in the 120th Congress and was scheduled for November 2026 as of 31 October 2026 (that scheduling snapshot is read in ET). Margin means the absolute difference between the first- and second-placed candidates, each measured as a percentage of all valid votes cast. In a runoff, ranked-choice or other multi-round contest, the round that decides the winner counts. If two margins are identical, the state whose name comes first alphabetically takes the tie. If any other race has the smallest margin, NO. The relevant state election authorities that certify statewide results decide; a broad agreement of reputable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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